Mexico and Canada: A Unified Front Against Trump’s Protectionist Rhetoric

As tensions rise in the global trade arena, Mexico and Canada have found common ground in their approach to dealing with the potential challenges posed by Donald Trump's protectionist rhetoric and policies. With Trump signaling intentions to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) upon returning to the White House, both Mexico and Canada are looking to present a united front to ensure that the agreement remains intact and does not become a tool for further trade disruption. 

A recent briefing paper from Global Affairs Canada (GAC) revealed that Canada’s position on the 2026 review of the USMCA aligns closely with Mexico's stance, particularly in their shared goal of keeping the review narrow, focused, and free from contentious renegotiations. As Trump’s protectionist rhetoric has raised concerns about the future of North American trade, Mexico and Canada’s cooperative efforts could play a critical role in reigning in such rhetoric and safeguarding the economic stability of the region.

The USMCA Review: A Critical Moment for North American Trade

The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, includes a provision for a review every six years, with the next joint evaluation set for 2026. During this review, the three countries involved—Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.—will assess the effectiveness of the agreement and propose any necessary changes. If all parties agree, the agreement could be extended for another 16 years, providing much-needed certainty to businesses and investors in the region. 

However, the prospect of a review also raises the possibility that the U.S., under Trump’s leadership, might attempt to reintroduce contentious issues, particularly those related to protectionist trade policies. Trump’s campaign promise to invoke the USMCA’s renegotiation clauses has placed Mexico and Canada on alert, as they anticipate efforts to undermine the trade deal or introduce new tariffs and restrictions. 

Canada and Mexico, however, have made it clear that they do not see the review process as an opportunity for renegotiation but rather as a way to ensure that the agreement remains relevant and responsive to evolving global trade dynamics. Canada, in particular, has stressed its preference for the agreement’s term to be extended as soon as possible to avoid the uncertainty that could arise from further renegotiations.

Shared Interests: Protecting the USMCA from Disruption

While Mexico and Canada have different domestic priorities and political landscapes, both countries share a fundamental interest in preserving the USMCA as a cornerstone of North American economic integration. For Canada, the focus is on maintaining a stable, predictable trading environment, which the USMCA offers. The Canadian government views the agreement as a key tool for strengthening the region’s competitiveness and resilience, and any major changes or disruptions could negatively affect Canada’s economy.

Similarly, Mexico is keen on preserving the status quo and ensuring that any proposed changes are narrow and targeted, rather than sweeping. The Mexican government has also expressed openness to addressing newer issues, such as environmental regulations and the rules surrounding zero-emission vehicles, which were not a significant focus during the original negotiations. However, Mexico’s government is wary of any attempts to revise core aspects of the agreement, particularly those related to tariffs, dispute resolution mechanisms, and labor standards.

Together, Mexico and Canada are aligned in their desire to limit the scope of the 2026 review to avoid unnecessary disruptions to the agreement’s framework. Both countries are also working proactively to prepare for a variety of scenarios, engaging with national stakeholders, businesses, and trade representatives to ensure their positions are well-informed and effectively presented during the review.

Trump’s Protectionist Rhetoric: A Threat to Regional Stability

Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and past actions—such as tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and his efforts to renegotiate NAFTA—have caused significant uncertainty in North American trade relations. Although Trump has yet to take concrete steps to invoke the USMCA renegotiation provisions since making his campaign promise, the mere threat of such actions is enough to create instability in the region. If elected, Trump’s administration could push for policies that would undermine the collaborative spirit of the USMCA and potentially lead to tariffs, trade wars, and other forms of economic retaliation.

Mexico and Canada are not alone in their concerns. Many business leaders and trade organizations across the region have expressed anxiety over the potential return of protectionist measures under Trump’s leadership. The possibility of increased tariffs or the imposition of new trade restrictions would likely have negative repercussions for the economies of all three countries, disrupting supply chains, raising costs for consumers, and destabilizing industries that rely on seamless cross-border trade.

A Collaborative Approach: Mexico and Canada as Allies

In this uncertain environment, the collaboration between Mexico and Canada is crucial. By presenting a unified position on the USMCA review, both countries can send a clear message to the United States that any attempts to renegotiate the agreement will be met with resistance. Mexico and Canada’s combined diplomatic efforts will be essential in advocating for a narrow review focused on updating specific issues—such as environmental standards or vehicle regulations—while maintaining the integrity of the broader trade framework.

Moreover, this collaboration could extend beyond the review process. Mexico and Canada can use their combined influence within international trade organizations, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), to advocate for policies that promote free trade and regional cooperation. By working together, Mexico and Canada can also explore new trade partnerships and economic alliances with countries beyond North America, ensuring that they are not overly reliant on the U.S. for their economic well-being.

The Road Ahead: Strengthening North American Economic Ties

The next few years will be crucial for the future of North American trade. With the 2026 USMCA review on the horizon and the potential return of Trump’s protectionist agenda, Mexico and Canada must continue to work closely together to safeguard the region’s economic interests. By maintaining a unified stance and advocating for the continued stability of the USMCA, Mexico and Canada can help mitigate the risks posed by Trump’s rhetoric and ensure that North America remains a competitive, integrated economic bloc.

In a time of uncertainty, the collaboration between Mexico and Canada represents a pragmatic approach to counteracting protectionism and reinforcing the importance of multilateral trade agreements. Together, they can ensure that the USMCA remains a powerful tool for economic prosperity in the region, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.